Observations on Ego Trips

Almost every day I stumble onto a news report like this one that discusses a recent poll indicating Republicans are poised to achieve landslide wins in the midterm congressional elections next month. If you believe what you read on the internet, Republicans will be running the House (definitely) and the Senate (probably) next January. All of these prognostications have caused me to think about politics at a time when I really have numerous better things to do.

First thought: News reports that focus on poll results need to be taken with a grain of salt. When I started blogging, I calculated the National Basic Stupidity Rate, which was roughly 49.4 percent. This was easily determined mathematically by simply averaging the shares of the popular vote gained by George W. Bush in the 2000 and 2004 elections. Any time I read about some poll, I always keep the NBSR in mind. When I begin with the premise that at least 49.4 percent of Americans will always be on the wrong side of an issue, it makes poll results easier to analyze and understand.

Second thought: For Republicans, this is as good as it will ever get, and they need to enjoy it. Republicans are a subset of stupid Americans, and there aren't enough of them to win any decent election outside of places like Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Utah and Idaho. Nationally, only about 35 percent of Americans are dyed-in-the-wool hardcore Republicans. To win elections, the GOP depends on a supplemental vote of pissed-off independents. In this country there are more independents than there are Republicans or Democrats, or at least as many, and they invariably determine the outcome of elections outside of deep south shitholes and states with total populations roughly comparable to a metropolitan area in a civilized state.

Right now, the polls indicate that the 35 percent (hardcore Republicans) are being joined by at least half of the independents, who are pissed off about everything imaginable and often with good reason. All the media attention devoted to shit like Sarah Palin and the Tea Party has kept these folks in a condition of serious agitation about the economy, even those who aren't being directly affected by it. Independents aren't doctrinaire about politics and tend to vote based on whatever has them pissed off at any given moment, which is why they helped Reagan beat Carter and Obama beat McCain.

The Republicans ran the fucking country for most of the last thirty years, beginning with the Reagan win in 1980. The Republican agenda during that time was pretty basic: God, guns, gays, tax cuts, deregulation, and the exercise of raw military power. In 2006 and again in 2008, independents decided Republicans were responsible for fucking things up and voted for Democrats instead.

Any fool could've predicted it would take more than two years to clean up a mess that had been created over at least 10-12 years, but apparently a lot of independents expected better results sooner than they're getting them; since they vote based on whatever's pissing them off at the moment, they're telling polling outfits they'll vote for Republicans, who made the mess to begin with.

All of this leads to some major ego tripping by Republicans, who were sent to bed without dessert in 2006 and 2008 and now expect to be back in control in a few months. They've convinced themselves that they're about to "take their country back" from that N in the White House, and that America loves them again. For the GOP, as I said, this is as good as it'll ever get.

Here's why: After all the build-up in the news media, everyone expects the GOP to steamroll the Democrats in November. If they fail to win control of either chamber, it will be the bust of the century. They have to win the House and probably the Senate, too, in order to meet public expectations.

Assume they meet expectations. Now they own responsibility for fixing the goddamned mess, at least in the minds of the voters who switched from Obama and the Dems to put the GOP in control of congress. The mindset will be, "We gave the N a shot and he couldn't do it. Now it's up to you to get it done, motherfucker."

What have you seen during thirty years of Republican political dominance that leads you to believe they're capable of cleaning up any mess ?

Meanwhile, Obama is still in the White House. We're back to divided government, and things may get better in America as a result. It worked when Clinton and Gingrich were splitting the power, and maybe it will again. If the economy soars and unemployment rates drop significantly, the Republicans will get a lot of credit, but in reality public approval of Obama will probably also increase once independents start feeling good about life again. Obama will keep the Republicans in congress on a short leash, since in any scenario they won't have veto-proof majorities. This will prevent them from doing the kind of outrageous shit that turns sensible people against them. If the Teapeople have their way (and they probably will), the GOP nominee in 2012 will be someone like Palin. Then independents peel off in droves, and Obama wins a second term.

The other possibility is that Republicans take over in January but like the Gingrich revolutionaries, get sidetracked with shit like impeachment. Nothing constructive happens, the economy stays in the shithouse, and independents looking for immediate gratification realize they've been sold a bill of goods. Again, they drop the GOP like a hot potato.

So enjoy it, Republicans. Right now, you're riding the crest of the wave.