Q NOTES # 954: Unlikely

Years ago, before I retired, I would listen to AM talk radio while commuting to work or between the offices I supervised. This meant that every week, I heard hours of infuriating bullshit from flaming assholes like Gordon Liddy, Sean Hannjob, and the late Rush Limburger. I noticed a particular poll was frequently discussed on the right-wing chat shows, always in the context of good news for the conservative audience. This was the Zogby poll, which at the time was fairly unique for polling LIKELY voters rather than REGISTERED voters (which was more common then).

After I retired and wasn't driving at least an hour or more every workday, I stopped listening to so much talk radio, but the Zogby poll was still a frequent topic on Limburger's program because it invariably reflected high levels of public approval for whatever Bush 43 and the (R)s in Congress were trying to pull. Eventually I noticed the Rasmussen poll of likely voters was getting more attention from right-wing media than Zogby, and also leaned consistently in favor of Republican politicians and their agenda. I began to suspect the LIKELY VOTER screens used by Zogby and Rasmussen were tilted toward GOP voters.

One afternoon, I answered a phone call from the Rasmussen polling organization and received my first personal exposure to the Likely Voter screen the service was using. Before I was asked for any opinions on current controversial issues, I was led through a long list of questions about my sex, age group, race, community (rural, urban, suburban, etc), party affiliation, voting habits, and so forth. One question: Did I know the location of my voting station? I'm pretty sure people who were probable voters for either party could be included or excluded from the poll sample fairly easily, based on how all those questions were answered.

I'm revisiting this topic after reading an article which notes that many polls showing the midterm elections tightening in favor of MAGA Monkeys are Likely Voter polls, with respondents chosen using subjective screening methods.

Added 3:23 PM: When Waste of Shit #1 was interviewed by Bob Woodward, the ignorant fuck apparently thought he was chatting with one of his showbiz chums like Hannjob or Tuckie Carlson.

We can't know for sure for a few months, but the developing bad blood between Waste of Shit #1 and Ronny DeSanitized is potentially a source of entertainment. Ideal scenario: the mutual destruction between those two goat fuckers is so extreme, it eliminates MAGA Monkeys as a viable party for several decades.

Some Numbers

This is an excerpt from an article in today's edition of Taegan Goddard's Political Wire (found posted @ DU):

 "If abortion becomes a major issue in the midterm elections, it has the potential to dramatically impact the race for control of the U.S. Senate.

Courtesy of the New York Times, here’s the net support for abortion rights in each of the battleground states with important Senate races:

Georgia +2
North Carolina +5
Ohio +10
Wisconsin +13
Pennsylvania +13
Arizona +13
Florida +18
Colorado +20
Nevada +32
New Hampshire +35

These numbers suggest that not many Republican Senate candidates are going to be celebrating the overturning of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court this summer."

Bouncing

The Blob (aka Red Death) is not going to be happy if he sees the results of a new poll from Fox News.

KOS reports Biden/Warren kicks Red Death's ass by ten points.

38 Percent

A new ABC/Washington Post poll reports Donny Guano's approval rating is down from 44 percent to 38 percent. As expected, Donny has quickly condemned the poll as the worst kind of fake news. Because he can always get several hundred hicks, yahoos, and creeps to show up for his campaign rallies, he perceives it as proof that he's beloved by about 90 percent of American voters.

I think the fat fuck can sink down into the low 30's if he keeps doing what he's doing.

Rasmussen Report Update

Whenever Donny Dud wants to feel good about himself, he tweets about his approval rating in the Rasmussen opinion poll, the only one that consistently leans in his favor. According to Rasmussen, the percentage of voters who strongly approve of Dud has leveled off at roughly 33 percent since mid-July. This is nearly 10 points lower than the percentage who strongly disapprove.

Bottom line, the United States is being turned into a shit pile to keep about a third of the population happy.

All those trump humpers better hope my prayers are never answered.

Saturday Odds and Ends

The latest polls indicate that Donnie Thud isn't getting any more popular. Maybe even less popular. Looks like "strong approval" is below 30 percent now.

Democrats in the House may be taking a look at speeding up the impeachment process now that the fat stool sample is making the case for them.

I can't shake off the feeling that Bernie Sanders will be a bigger problem for Democrats in 2020 than he was in 2016, if that's possible. I can't imagine a scenario in which he defeats the stool sample, but I can imagine one in which he helps the stool sample win.

Added 4:18 PM Sunday: Booger Barr is going weak-kneed over the idea that he might be interrogated by REAL attorneys when he appears before the House Judiciary Committee. I hope they peel Booger like a piece of fruit.

Added 7:17 PM Sunday: The chinless wonder doesn't realize how lucky he is that I don't hold his fate in my hands as the supreme authority in the galaxy. As we've all learned, Donnie Thud is a problem, but he's not the whole problem. If it weren't for all those assholes who are enabling him, we could fix the Donnie problem in a few weeks at most. 

Public Opinions

Based on various opinion polls released lately, it seems like about 50 percent of American voters are satisfied that Donnie Phugtupp is a candidate for impeachment because he's committed a crime, or is a Russian asset, or both.

On the flip side, roughly 30 percent of voters will never believe Donnie has ever done anything wrong, or don't care if he did because he's chosen by god.

That leaves roughly 20 percent who don't want to believe any American president could be guilty of all the things Donnie's done, but aren't ruling out the possibility. This group can probably be persuaded by the findings of Robert Mueller's investigation.

Update 10:44 AM Wednesday: The latest Donnie weirdness is a clue that he's totally concentrating on his 30 percenters now. He's stopped trying to win back the 70 percent.

Just try to concentrate, okay?

There are probably many evil reasons, but here's one of them: Trump's child-stealing policy is part of his plan to give Republican base 'a reason to vote'

The obvious question is whether the policy will give Democrats and anti-Donnie independents a reason to vote.

The most recent Quinnipiac poll, released yesterday, shows that Republicans divide on the issue, with most (55 percent) for, and some (35 percent) against. The GOP has to decide whether to go along with the majority of their voters, or the majority of the country.

Update: If people are getting fed up with Donnie and his Gestapo now, what would the public reaction be if there were pictures of little girls in his concentration camps? The Gestapo knows. Are they worried that even the "Deplorable for Donnie" bunch might reluctantly decide they've finally had enough of this filth?

One in three...

If this was a football score, people would describe it as a blowout: 62-33

The latest Gallup tracking poll has Unfavorable leading Favorable 62 percent to 33 percent, and that 33 percent is a new low for Donnie Dick Sandwich. It reflects poorly on this country that one out of every three voters is still willing to admit they like the fat POS. What's even worse is that the GOP is treating them like they're the only people who matter these days.

Obviously ~

The media made it possible for Cornholio to become the so-called precedent (sic), and now they have one final opportunity to atone and make it up to America. Maybe they'll take advantage of it.

Added 2:30 PM Monday 24 April: Cornholio likes the idea of shutting down the federal government. First, he's pretty sure it'll put the brakes on those investigations of his Russian connection. Even better is MORE FREE TIME FOR GOLF! Hooray for a shutdown!

Added 7:10 PM Monday 24 April: It's comforting to know 73 percent of the people agree with me that an independent investigation of Cornholio is definitely in order.

The mook never understood that actually being a precedent (sic) is much more complicated than pretending to be a hotshot executive on a TV reality show.

Yeah, you were conned.

Maybe the wake-up call came earlier than expected. It's at least a little encouraging to see a poll indicating that voters in states that will be important factors in 2018 are starting to realize they've been fleeced by a con man. It usually takes longer than six weeks.

Added 12:09 Saturday:

And yeah, while we're waking up, it would be really cool if Congress forced the so-called precedent (sic) to turn over his income tax records.

Added 2:46 PM Saturday:

Tiny crowds, usually a few hundred or less, marching 4 trump. Maybe additional evidence that people are catching on? And it would also be cool if fatso's Twitter addiction was his fatal error.

Fun with Numbers: Thirds

The 2016 presidential election returns, and playing the what-if game ~

Look at what would happen if all the people who voted for Johnson (Libertarian) and Stein (Green) had voted for Hillary Clinton instead:

• FLORIDA (29 electoral votes): Winning margin Agent Orange 118770, combined vote third party candidates 270026. New total: Hillary by 151256.
• PENNSYLVANIA (20 electoral votes): Winning margin Agent Orange 28236, combined third party candidates 191565. New total: Hillary by 163329.
• WISCONSIN (10 electoral votes): Winning margin Agent Orange 24257, combined third party candidates 137422. New total: Hillary by 113165.
• NEW HAMPSHIRE (4 electoral votes): Current margin Agent Orange 1437, combined third party candidates 36622. New total: Hillary by 35185.

Add the 63 additional EC votes in those four states to Clinton's actual 228, and she wins the election with 291. Over the next four years, the DNC needs to find a way to slice off big chunks of Libertarian and Green Party votes in key battleground states.

PS: The political polling industry is as fucked up as Donald Trump. They've tricked me with their bullshit numbers for the last time.

PPS:  Hillary Clinton apparently won New Hampshire after all the votes were counted.

Basic Stupidity Rate Update

I started assembling and writing blogs nine years ago (on 28 September 2007 to be exact). After I'd been doing it awhile, I decided to use information sources available on the Internet invented by Al Gore to compute a national Basic Stupidity Rate (BSR), providing a baseline for interpreting the significance of various public opinion polls.

I realized that a national BSR could be mathematically calculated by simply averaging the percentages of the popular vote the Republican candidate received in each presidential election starting with Bush vs Gore in 2000. After I made the intial NBSR calculation, I realized the same procedure could be used for individual states, and I could estimate the level of fundamental stupidity in Texas compared to the entire country.

The 2016 election is coming up in 12 days, and a few weeks after that, it'll be time to update the BSRs for the United States and Texas. Based on what polls are indicating today, there's a chance that Donald Trump's candidacy may have a net effect of lowering the national BSR a little bit. We'll have to wait and see.

Basic Stupidity Rate data currently on file is as follows:

• 2000 election: National percentage 47.87, Texas @ 59.30
• 2004 election: National percentage 50.73, Texas @ 61.09
• 2008 election: National percentage 45.65, Texas @ 55.45
• 2012 election:  National percentage 47.20, Texas @ 57.17
• Present National BSR @ 47.862 percent
• Present Texas BSR @ 58.252 percent  

Based on the data, I expect at least 47.862 percent of those responding to poll questions will be on the wrong side of any issue because they're basically stupid. For example, Barack Obama should never achieve a job approval rate higher than 50.1 percent, allowing for 47.862 percent national stupidity, and another two percent for the usual undecideds (so uninformed they're unable to offer an opinion). If Obama hits 51-52 percent approval, he's overachieving.

Based on the state data, stupidity in Texas is 10.4 percent more common than in the nation as a whole. As Trump would say, so sad.

Expectations

Do people really fall for shit like this?

Well, considering who the Republican Party nominated, I guess the answer is "Yes, they do."

Narrowing the gap

Right-wing newspaper columnist Charles Krauthammer is a fucking ghoul, and I usually ignore the putrid crap he coughs up -- but his latest column in the Chronicle answers a question I've been asking myself about the opinion polls: Why is Cheeto managing to close the gap a little?

The main reason Cheeto was way behind in the polls is that he's such a rotten piece of shit, some Republicans were disgusted by him and were trying to figure out who to vote for instead. These assholes believe whatever they saw most recently on cable news shows is reality. Cheeto softens his message a little, and apparently it's sucking conservative white people with some education back into the flock. Once a gullible Republican idiot, always a gullible Republican idiot, I guess.

Anyway, it helped Cheeto narrow his poll deficit by two or three points this week.

Up, down, all around

Recent polls have been released that show Thumper close behind or slightly ahead of Mrs. Clinton, which has caused Republicans to moisten their underwear and Democrats to start fidgeting with their worry beads. Washington Monthly explains why we should just chill out for the time being.

The people speak.

More total fucking bullshit from the Republican Party.

I was going through the personal papers of a recently deceased conservative Republican, and came across an envelope with John Boehner's name on it. I pulled out the contents and discovered the Ask America Nationwide Policy Survey. There was a four-page cover letter 'signed' by Boehner, which began as follows:

"Dear Friend,

You have been selected from a pool of 1,000 names submitted from your area to participate in a National Policy Survey called ASK AMERICA.

The Republican Party is conducting this nationwide grassroots project to help make sure that we continue to reflect the concerns and priorities of the American people."

Then there's a six-page questionnaire full of fucking crap like this:

Do you think the Obama administration is wrong in pursuing job-destroying regulations that lock away America's vast domestic oil and gas supplies? (Yes, No, or No Opinion)

And this:

Do you support Republican efforts to open up America's vast energy reserves to create jobs, address high gas prices, and reduce our dependence on foreign oil? (Same choices)

So the NRCC sends an obviously biased survey to a small hand-picked sample of Republican voters. That should produce exactly the response they want, so they can claim the American people are overwhelmingly in favor of the party's political agenda.

Opinions

The phone rang a few minutes ago, and the caller ID showed the number 202-810-1454 with the name SURVEY2013POLL. Since I believe pollsters are entitled to my opinion on crucial matters, I picked up. It was one of those automated voice response things that hardcore right-wingers often use. A male voice identifying himself as Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council explained that he'd like me to participate in a 45-second survey, and asked if I was willing. I said yes. This is the ensuing 'dialogue' (paraphrased):

TONY: Do you believe America is on the wrong path?

ME: No.

TONY: Do you believe the Boy Scouts of America should be bullied into accepting homosexuals as scoutmasters?

ME: Yes.

TONY: Thank you. (Click)

I wonder how long this 'survey' would have lasted if I had answered YES to question one, and NO to question two, and how long it would have taken Tony to solicit a donation. I hate right-wing religious lunatics who pretend to be Christians.

The EC Map

According to Nate Silver, things may not get any easier for the Grand Old White Guy Party in 2016 and 2020, because the current Electoral College configuration remains in effect for the rest of the decade.

Reds and Blues

I've been wondering how Obama could be doing so poorly in the recent Gallup polls, and now there's a possible explanation. Apparently Romney has a huge lead in those bright red southern states (around 22 points), and Obama is leading by much smaller margins in the eastern, midwestern and western regions. In the Electoral College, Willard wins Texas, Alabama, Mississippi and Kentucky whether it's 51-49 or 66-34. Assuming Obama's campaign polls reflect the same trend, that might explain why he looked like he was having a good time in last night's town hall gig.