In October 2004, the incumbent president had a job approval rating of 49
percent. His election challenger was a millionaire from Massachusetts with a
reputation for flip-flopping and changing positions. The final national pre-election
polls taken in October showed the incumbent
president leading by anywhere from 1-3 points. The pre-election Real
Clear Politics average was 48.9 pct. to 47.4 pct. in favor of the
incumbent (average lead of 1.5 percent)
In the election, the incumbent president won with 50.74 percent of the popular vote, and 286 Electoral College votes.
For some of us, there appear to be similarities between the situation in 2012 and the 2004 election. Something to ponder while we await the debates.
Added 7:20 PM, Thursday 4 October: The parallels continue. In 2004, W was off his game and Kerry was on a roll, and the consensus was a devastating defeat for the incumbent in the first debate. Kerry actually pulled into a tie in the polls for a brief period.
In the election, the incumbent president won with 50.74 percent of the popular vote, and 286 Electoral College votes.
For some of us, there appear to be similarities between the situation in 2012 and the 2004 election. Something to ponder while we await the debates.
Added 7:20 PM, Thursday 4 October: The parallels continue. In 2004, W was off his game and Kerry was on a roll, and the consensus was a devastating defeat for the incumbent in the first debate. Kerry actually pulled into a tie in the polls for a brief period.
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